News and Society, Economy
What is the Monte Carlo method?
Under the Monte Carlo method, one of the ways of statistical modeling is commonly understood, which, in turn, was based on the concept of a "black box".
Let us consider in more detail the Monte Carlo method in economics.
The application of this method of statistical modeling can be illustrated by an example from the theory of queues. So, let's assume that it is required to find out how long and how often it is necessary to wait for customers in the queue at a certain (initially set) bandwidth of some store. These calculations, in the first place, are necessary to decide whether to expand the store. As is known, the buyers' approach, as a rule, is random or uncertain, therefore, the distribution of the so-called approach time, that is, the gap between each two successive arrivals of buyers, can be independently established based on available information. On the other hand, the service time of each customer also has a random character, therefore, its distribution can also be detected. So, before us are two stochastic processes, the direct interaction of which creates a queue.
In the same way, you can recreate several times the artificial picture of the work of almost any store, using the Monte Carlo method in practice. Simulation modeling in this case will repeat real data. The two stochastic processes described above are again obtained. Their alternate interaction in the end result will again issue a "queue" with practically the same indicators as in real life.
To understand what the random selection mechanism implies, simply use the most common dice. However, in practice, as a rule, tables of random numbers are used. In addition, at the moment, special programs are used for computers, which are called generators of random numbers among specialists. In fact, the Monte Carlo method is simple enough, effective and convenient, which causes its widespread use, both in economics and in other exact sciences.
Similar articles
Trending Now