The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. The consequences of imposing sanctions. Economy of Russia today

This year, the Russian economy is experiencing colossal international pressure. Practical measures applied by foreign countries to Russia are expressed in various kinds of sanctions. What is their nature? What is the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy? What opportunities are opened by the Russian Federation due to changes in the external conjuncture?

The essence of sanctions

According to the widely held viewpoint in the expert community, the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation is mainly due to Russia's political position regarding the Ukrainian crisis. Western states, the bulk of which is part of NATO, considered it inadmissible for the Russian authorities to act against the Crimea, as well as the eastern regions of Ukraine, in which, according to the Atlantic bloc countries, pro-Russian armed groups are active.

As such, sanctions are economic and political. In the first part, this is a different kind of embargo, on the second - the introduction of officials and legal entities in the relevant sanctions lists.

Periodization of sanctions

Consider the sequence in which sanctions were imposed against the Russian Federation. Experts believe that the first package of relevant measures was put in place immediately after Russia supported the referendum in the Crimea and included this region in its composition. Western states considered the actions of the authorities of the peninsula, as well as the position of the Russian Federation illegal. The subsequent rounds of sanctions were connected, as analysts believe, with the further escalation of the situation in Ukraine.

Sanctions: a threat to the Russian economy

What are the consequences of imposing sanctions on the Russian economy? Experts note that the greatest difficulties can arise in the sphere of imports. The fact is that the Russian economy is quite dependent on the importation of science-intensive technologies, products of engineering, drugs, and, to a large extent, food. Russia's main import partners are the countries of the European Union, those that used sanctions against the Russian Federation. If the economic component of the corresponding measures becomes systemic, the shortage of imported products, experts say, will not take long.

In search of an investor

The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy can be clearly traced in the aspect of attracting foreign investment. In particular, the credit ratings of the Russian Federation, which are the main indicator of the country's attractiveness to foreign capital, may suffer. The result of a decline in investment inflow may be a slowdown in GDP growth, economists believe. The economy of Russia today, analysts say, largely depends on foreign capital. Stock exchanges of RTS and MICEX fill liquidity in many respects at the expense of attraction of foreign investments.

However, experts believe, foreign capital may not necessarily be of Western origin. It is likely that the place of investors from the EU and the US will be borrowed, say, by the capitalists from the BRICS countries, which, according to many analysts, are now allies of Russia. Therefore, the reduction of ratings in the framework of methodologies developed in the US and the EU may not play a significant role in attracting investments.

Sanctions and the banking system

In what way can the effect of sanctions on the banking system of Russia be traced? In this sphere, analysts believe, the potential for the emergence of threats to the country's economy is greatest. The fact is that the Russian banking system is so integrated into the world (which, in turn, is largely controlled by the US and its Western allies) that foreign financiers actually have access to key management mechanisms for it. Accounts of American and European banks are actively used by Russian businesses. And if the credit and financial organizations of Western countries decide to freeze the relevant assets, then, experts say, it can inflict considerable damage on enterprises of the Russian Federation working with foreign banks.

Sanctions (from the EU side) were introduced against the largest Russian credit and financial institutions, such as VTB, Sberbank, VEB. In particular, since early August, EU citizens have been prohibited from acquiring certain types of securities of these institutions. According to analysts, in practice this means only one thing - these Russian banks cease to have access to capital markets. And because they may have problems with the payment of current debt obligations, registration of new loans and investments.

VISA - in Russia?

One of the most revealing precedents concerning such an aspect as the impact of sanctions on the banking system of the Russian Federation can be seen as the blocking by several of the largest credit payment systems in the world - VISA and MasterCard - of several Russian credit and financial institutions, such as Sobinbank, , "SMP Bank". The customers of these banks could no longer pay using international acquiring channels. At the same time, experts agree that it will not be possible to completely disconnect from the Russian market VISA and MasterCard . If this happens, then there will be a threat to the stability of the EU financial system.

Another consequence of the sanctions in the banking sector may be the limitation of lending to Russian organizations in the west. Loan conditions in Western banks are in many cases preferable to those within the Russian Federation (mainly due to lower interest rates). However, the practical impact of sanctions on business in terms of lending may not be so significant if entrepreneurs are able to interact with other markets in terms of loans. One of the most promising Russian experts sees the Chinese version.

Is it all to the banks?

Help the Russian banks in terms of sanctions prepared by the Central Bank. In particular, in the media there have been statements by the Central Bank administration that, if necessary, international currency reserves can be used for this purpose. The largest banks of the Russian Federation declared that they are ready for sanctions. Sberbank's management, in particular, announced that the institution has sufficient resources, management experience and expertise to continue working under current economic and political conditions. Gazprombank and VTB also assured the public that the actions of the US and the EU will not affect the financial stability of institutions. Thus, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy in terms of the banking sector may not be so significant.

Sanctions and Opportunities

According to a number of economists, EU sanctions are an excellent opportunity to establish business in the Russian economy, which, due to its strong focus on oil exports, is not developing as dynamically as it could.

The greatest potential, analysts believe, is present in the sphere of import-substitution. Russia has enough resources - both in terms of production capacities and raw materials, and in terms of the scientific component, to produce the bulk of goods imported from abroad.

Response capacity

What are the mechanisms by which Russia can oppose sanctions? First of all it is worth noting adopted in 2006, long before the clear prerequisites of the Ukrainian crisis began to take shape, the law on special measures of economic nature that can be applied if the country will need to respond to wrongdoing, which is a threat Interests of Russia, at the level of international relations. Therefore, the basic legislative resources that can be used as a response to the imposition of sanctions against Russia are present. Moreover, there is evidence that the structures of the Federal Assembly are working to create new legal acts that can expand the range of countermeasures in the Russian Federation under international pressure. In particular, there is an opinion that new laws may include provisions allowing the confiscation of assets of Western companies located in Russia (both public and private).

Response to sanctions

Despite the fact that the reasons for the imposition of sanctions by the Russian government were judged, based on the comments of senior officials, unreasonable and contradictory to logic, countermeasures against Western countries, comparable to those against Russia, were used nevertheless. In particular, during the first wave of the relevant international measures, the authorities of the Russian Federation decided to formulate lists of persons who have Western citizenship, who are prohibited from entering the territory of the Russian Federation.

When VISA and MasterCard, as we have said above, stopped servicing the cards of several Russian banks, the Russian authorities decided to intensify the work, first, to develop a national payment system, and secondly, to attract the Chinese Ministry of Railways - UnionPay, Which could become a serious competitor to current world leaders. This would have caused VISA and MasterCard significant, according to some economists, damage - hundreds of millions of dollars.

The most serious package of Russian countermeasures was the ban on the importation into Russia of a huge range of food products, mainly produced by the food industry of the EU (as well as enterprises of Canada, Australia and the USA). In early August, the Russian president issued the relevant decree. The list of goods that fell under the embargo consisted of a variety of food products - meat, dairy products, fish, vegetables, fruits. In monetary terms, the total volume of the corresponding imports, analysts calculated, at the time of the introduction of countermeasures was $ 9 billion.

Also in August, adjustments were made in the sphere of light industry. In particular, in the segment of state procurement, clothes from fabrics, leather and furs were banned. True, the experts did not consider this move by the Russian authorities as a direct response to sanctions, since the corresponding restriction affected supplies from all countries, not including those that, along with the Russian Federation, are members of the Customs Union, and not just Western ones.

The consequences of "unsanctions" for the EU

The fact that Western sanctions in the Russian economy can lead to problems at the level of imports, we have already said, citing several industries as an example. But will the foreign exporters themselves, let's say the same machine-building products, feel at the same time. Those who supplied the equipment to Russia? What are the possible consequences of sanctions for the EU? According to one of the analytical reports Reuters, comfortably Europeans, most likely, will not. One of the most active partners of Russia in the economic sphere is Germany. There are figures: about 300 thousand jobs in Germany somehow reflect the employment of the population in the areas of interaction with the Russian Federation. Experts believe that exports from Germany to Russia may decrease by several tens of percent (mainly in the engineering sector). At the same time, there is an opinion that the aggravation of relations with the Russian Federation will not have a significant impact on the general state of the FRG economy as a whole. Simply because the current share of Russia in the volume of Germany's foreign trade does not exceed now 4%. Thus, the impact of sanctions on business in Europe is seen by experts as sufficiently limited.

Food "unsanctions"

Consider the aspect concerning the most serious, according to experts, countermeasures by the Russian authorities - the ban on the import of products from the EU. Many analysts believe that European agricultural producers suffered from the embargo very significantly. Deliveries to Russia for many of them were a guarantee of profitability, and for some businesses, and in general the main channel of sales. Find buyers in other markets, analysts believe, food industry enterprises from the EU will be in a very short time. And so in the near future their business is unlikely to be profitable.

Foundation of Europe

At the same time, a number of experts believe that the consequences of the embargo for the EU may not be as significant as, in particular, the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. The share of agricultural exports from the European Union to the Russian Federation is less than 5% in the economy of this political association. And this is despite the fact that Russia is the second largest market in this segment for the EU in this segment. There is also evidence that the European Union is going to compensate for possible losses from "unsanctions" from the Russian Federation, using the funds of a specially created fund. True, its magnitude, analysts say, is not too impressive - 400 million euros. The country that can suffer from "unsanctions" is stronger than others - Finland. Due to geographical proximity, this state and the Russian Federation have close economic ties. Approximately 25% of exports from Finland are sent to Russia. At the same time, the share of food in it is less than 3%.

Prospects for self-sufficiency

What was the impact of sanctions on Russian agriculture? Some experts believe that the food embargo against producers from the EU has opened up huge opportunities for the Russian agrarians. In many segments, market niches were freed, or at least became much less saturated. There is a point of view that agricultural producers from Russia are not yet ready for a sharp increase in output, and in this case there are two possible scenarios: the filling of niches at the expense of suppliers from countries that did not fall under the embargo, or, which is less desirable for the economy The emergence of a tangible commodity deficit. And, as a consequence, the price increase.

Russia's economy today, many experts believe, can not yet fully guarantee the effective import substitution - including in the field of agriculture. Analysts say that the increase in selling prices for various products occurred in a rather fast time since the introduction of "unsanctions." According to analysts' estimates, by the end of 2014 some types of commodity items may rise in price by more than 30%. On average, the products that form the main basket, the price increase can be about 15%. There is a possibility, analysts believe, that the quality of products presented on the shelves will drop. In Russia, as well as in many countries where it is supposed to import goods, production standards are not so strict as in Europe.