Birth rate

The population growth in the country is possible both at the expense of increasing the birth rate and reducing mortality, and due to migration processes. The last factor we will not consider. Between the growth of the population and its reproduction there is a similarity and difference. The latter is that the population can continue to grow, and its reproduction is already beginning to decline, and vice versa - the population may decrease, and its reproduction at the same time - expand.

Currently, among domestic demographic experts, the issue of the role of mortality and fertility in the reproduction of the population in the country is actively debated. Which factor of the two above is dominant? What is more determined by population replenishment and growth? What problem should be paid attention first of all to low birth rate or relatively high mortality rate?

Studies of modern domestic demographic scientists show that the role of today's, although rather high, mortality in changing population reproduction is relatively small. Of course, one can not belittle the role of fighting high mortality rates in the country. But the demographic significance of them is small. Today, the main factor that has the most significant impact on the demographic future of our country is the birth rate.

The problem of increasing the birth rate in the country is quite acute. One of the key indicators of the demographic situation is the total fertility rate, determined by the ratio of the number of births per year to the number of people per one thousand population for the same period. What is this indicator for? The birth rate is necessary for a more accurate assessment of the demographic situation, for compiling demographic forecasts, and others. These indicators are several. This is a whole group, not just one factor. The entire group of coefficients is analyzed in the complex.

The most correct indicator of the birth rate is the fertility rate. It is characterized by the average number of births per woman on average for her life. The total fertility rate for simple reproduction can not be lower than 2.17. If it is 4.1 or more, then it is high, and if less than 2.17, it is low.

The birth rate worldwide decreased from 4.95 births in 1950 to 2.56 in 2010. In some developed countries, this level of fertility was already in the 60's. 20 century, and by the end of the century it decreased to 1.57. The maximum birth rate in Niger is 7.74, the minimum in Macau is 0.92.

According to Rosstat, in 2009 this coefficient in the country was 1.53. The value in the urban area was 1.41, and in rural - 1.9. In 2011, in the country as a whole, it was 1.61.

Fertility rate in the districts: Central - 1.41; North-West - 1.41; South - 1.68; Privolzhsky - 1,50; Ural - 1,61; Siberian - 1.63; The Far East is 1.57.

Fertility rates can be divided into special (female and male), general and private (cumulative, age and others).

The most common is the general:

N = n / (T * P) * 1000,

T - years (period); P - population by the middle of the period (average annual population); N - number of children born.

The coefficient depends on the intensity of the birth rate, it can give an error in the calculation.

Special factor:

F = n / (TW) * 1000.

The overall ratio is related to the special:

N = F * k,

K - the proportion of women 14-48 years in the entire population. This parameter ranges from 21 to 31, so the analytical value of the special coefficient is close to the total. The level of the indicator depends on the age structure of women 14-48 years. The birth rate at 14 years is approaching zero, from 21 to 32 years reaches its maximum value and again tends to zero by 52 years. A special coefficient is sometimes calculated for men - (FM):

FM = n / (t * M) * 1000

Often it turns out to be somewhat larger than special, because at the age of 14-51, men are slightly less than women. The age interval for them is sometimes taken 14-55 or 14-58 years. In such cases, the special ratio for men and women is not comparable.