What to do with rubles? What to do with the ruble today? The ruble is falling - what should we do?

The topic of the fall of the ruble in recent years is often raised in the press. Publications are different: from the confused philistine ("What to do with the ruble?"), To a fairly thorough, analytical. This article aims to provide a systematic, generalized material on this topic, based on the publications available in the Russian press.

What determines the ruble strategy of Russia

Analytics is sometimes a paradoxical thing. While preparing the answer to this purely Russian question, we faced with its worthy coverage, sounding from the mouth ... of the Western analyst Chris Weafer. According to his point of view, the structural deficit for the Russian economy has matured and developed to such an extent that 2014 should be decisive for their implementation: either they will occur at this time, or will not happen at all (for thought: in 2016 - parliamentary Elections, in 2018 - presidential elections).

At the same time, as the scientist says, one should take into account that the reforms will give a result only in 2-3 years.

It is necessary to shift the emphasis from the obsolete locomotive of economic growth - an extensive raw material economy - to a fundamentally new engine of economic growth. One of the tools for such a reorientation is the ruble rate. What to do with it? This question has two alternative answers.

1. The position of the supporters of neo-liberalism (represented by the Central Bank, ministries, oligarchy) is reduced to long-term reforms and, accordingly, - the launching of the ruble into "free navigation".

2. Conservatives, represented by the siloviki, bureaucracy, state concerns, tend to impede the changes in every possible way.

The key message to the start of the reforms was the realization by both of them that sitting with folding hands is more risky than reconstruction. To create a Russian investment resource, two conditions are necessary: expensive oil and a cheap ruble. So, the command was given: "Forward!"

The launch pad of the Russian economy

Of course, at first the macroeconomic situation of the country was assessed. The development of the economy was promoted by the ten-year stability of the ruble exchange rate. The Russian stock market is tempting for private investors. An impressive international reserves have accumulated - $ 500 billion.

The Russian ruble in the future is ready for an integrative function - a single currency for all countries of the Customs Union.

The ruble policy of the Central Bank

The primary message of our discussions should be the policy of the Central Bank, the state body that organizes monetary circulation and affects the rates of national and other currencies. The head of the main bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina repeatedly voiced her main theses.

They see the official vision of the mission of the Russian national currency as floating, not tied administratively to the dollar and euro exchange rates. To the questions: "What to do with the ruble?" The head of the Central Bank says that, using inexpensive currency, strengthen the economy, and that, in turn, will strengthen the ruble.

New exchange rate policy of the Central Bank

A fundamentally new view of the mission of the national currency was proposed by the "Main Directions of the Monetary Policy from 2014 to 2016". This document substantiates and regulates the policy of the Bank of Russia: from targeting the ruble to inflation targeting. It is planned to fully switch to a floating mechanism for regulating the exchange rate of the national currency by 2015. Carrying out the above program, in January 1914 the CBR ceased foreign exchange interventions to maintain the exchange rate, respectively, the ruble falls. What if the economic indicators for the Eurozone countries at the same time show a positive trend? Russia should maintain its strategy.

Official view: the reasons for the depreciation of the ruble

The head of the Bank of Russia calls for the problem of the falling ruble to be assessed objectively: the ruble has not fallen, but the dollar and euro have strengthened. As you know, the beginning of this process was laid by the reduction in the repurchase of the assets of the Federal Reserve System of the United States according to the concept of "quantitative easing" - up to $ 65 billion per month.

Since the end of 2012 the redistribution of world development centers has finally taken shape. The main drivers of economic growth were the United States and Europe. The economy of Russia, as well as of Asian countries, in 2013 demonstrated a trend of stagnation. In the same context falls and a decline in the pace of development of the PRC.

Elvira Nabiullina sees a key factor for the growth of the national currency in stimulating the development of the economy. It points to a significant economic leverage to correct the situation: the predominance of Russia's exports over its imports. At the same time, the state does not decide what to do with rubles, in a manual mode, objectively assessing the situation.

In the short term, this trend determines the growing profitability of raw material exporters. Well, in the long term, the ruble should lean on the business activity of other, non-primary sectors of the Russian economy.

According to Russian bankers (Anton Mukhin, FinSovietnik of the Irkutsk branch of BCS, Premier in Irkutsk), the current pressure on the ruble is speculative. Its growth in the future should contribute to a positive outlook for oil exports and "reserves for maneuvers" of the Central Bank. The banker is sure: in the state financial strategy it is stipulated as a certain stage of it that the ruble fell. What to do - see the next steps of the Central Bank.

Temporary depreciation is confirmed by studies conducted by the analysts of America_Merrill_Lynch, who determined by macroeconomic modeling that in the second and fourth quarter of this year the price of Russian oil will increase.

The ruble exchange rate and the players of the Russian market

At the same time, the head of the Central Bank calls on all players of the Russian market to jointly and comprehensively tackle the problem of the ruble's fall. She reminded that the Central Bank is not the only entity in the currency market of the country. Its function is to qualitatively evaluate and cope with short-term fluctuations of the national currency, thereby maintaining a stable business situation.

The long-term decline of its rate, as Elvira Nabiullina points out, is connected with the structural influence of the export-oriented raw material economy. That is, the answer to the challenge of time: "What to do with the ruble?" Is associated with a cardinal structural reset of the entire economy in the complex.

On the strategy of business and households with a falling ruble

Obviously, a weak ruble is an effective lever for an export-oriented country, its goal is to support its producer. This is the opinion of Evgeny Bolotin, Chairman of the Board of the Banking Union of the Urals. He believes that the decision of the exchange rate alternative (to regulate / not to regulate) is obvious: industry growth and payment of taxes, accompanying the controlled fall of the ruble, are necessary. What if the import is more expensive? To replace it with Russian products.

Now about the position of entrepreneurs in the securities market. On the one hand, Radik Akhmetshin, director of the branch of the Ural Stock Market Association, believes that business has a chance to lay the groundwork for its future growth by buying up shares at fallen prices. After all, their course will certainly grow in the future. The latter is also approved by the Russian Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov. However, the leading Russian economists expect permanent devaluation of the national currency during 2014 to 20%.

On the other hand, the pressure of the falling ruble on the Russian stock market, in fact, is just words. Actually, since its main players are non-residents, the problem of falling stock prices, foreign investors were forced to "take over".

The ruble is falling - what should we do? 2014, realities

How does the population of Russia react to the fall of the ruble? This issue was studied by Vladimir Zotov (Directorate of Fin / Institutions and Investments of the Ural Bank). According to the banker, the demand for cash has clearly increased, while a small portion of deposits is being withdrawn. Against this background, there is no tendency to transfer ruble deposits to dollar or euro. As an illustration of the above, he voiced the following statistics: if the ruble deposits of the population of Russia are about 16.3 trillion. Rubles, then foreign currency, converted at the rate of the Central Bank in rubles, - only 3.3 trillion. Rubles, or 20%.

However, the Russians, who have experienced and survived more than one crisis, still ask the question: "The ruble is falling - what to do?" The answer is traditional: it is necessary to diversify its funds. It is quite reasonable, for example, the following strategy: put half the money on a ruble deposit, one of the remaining quarters - in a dollar deposit, and the rest - in the euro.

The position of the average citizen

Agree, today the "problems" of compatriots who regularly wander abroad in order to make the same purchases of imports that they could make in Russia, but at more favorable prices, seem ridiculous today. They, you see, have fallen purchasing power when converting rubles.

Many citizens of our state, unlike the first, are deprived of a financial airbag. For them, another problem is urgent: what to do with the ruble today? In principle, funds in the amount of up to 30 thousand rubles. Can be stored in cash at home.

Now let's look at the situation when free money is available to citizens. Take them ruble deposits from the bank should not be. According to the terms of the deposit agreement, having terminated it ahead of schedule, the client of the bank will not receive interest. In this way he will only increase his own damage with his own hands.

If you have long dreamed of buying an imported car, for you the question is especially relevant: "What to do with the ruble today?" The answer to it is brief: "Buy!" Indeed, in the future the fall of the national currency will cause the appreciation of your dreams.

Recommended - not recommended

If we generalize the qualified advice to fellow citizens who are reflective than to create a safety margin for themselves when the national currency falls, then everything will be reduced to two extremely simple positions.

First: do not recommend investing in illiquid funds. For example, income from real estate is possible only for long periods of time. Moreover, with inflation, in principle, it is generally not recommended to sell real estate. In the conditions of the crisis, the dynamics of the need for money is not highly predicted.

And yet, what to do when the ruble is devalued? The second position indicates that the recommended direction of investing money of the population are liquid assets: bank deposits, precious metals, investment funds from investment companies.

And how do you do without the traditional old kind centuries-old council that has already become traditional: citizens, learn how to save, put aside a tenth of the earned money every month for a rainy day!

Some circumstances of the fall of the ruble

Anecdotically, "distress on the camera" of Russian oil workers, who are the loudest of all who cry out loud: "Guard! The collapse of the ruble! What to do? !! "After all, people who have studied economics more or less are well versed in the fact that with a growing oil price and a falling dollar," raw materials "get into nirvana, because their incomes are calculated in hard currency, and expenses (including taxes ) - in rubles. There is a reverse transformation: the fall of the ruble becomes the income of the oligarchs.

Among the non-winners, for sure, will be Surgutneftegaz - a deeply commercial structure with an impressive actual currency position of $ 30 billion. We note that the smaller Lukoil and Rosneft will win. They will not be able to maximize profits because of the short-term foreign currency payables (the currency for its repayment will have to be bought at the inflation rate). Leading exporter, Gazprom, most likely, will receive super-profits from the "political" increase in tariffs.

The director of the Alpari analytical agency Alexander Razuvaev predicts that as a result of such a developed tariff fork between the price of oil (gas) and taxes in rubles, the main income of the oil and gas complex will be 862 billion rubles. With additional income of 682 billion rubles. In a word, when the ruble depreciates what to do, the oil industry knows best.

Conclusion

Thus, a weak ruble is not so much a sign of a crisis as a specific financial instrument of development. It contributes to the formation of a monetary "airbag" for the necessary structural changes in the economy.

From the foregoing, it follows that the domestic investment resource of Russia is directly dependent on whether it will be possible to turn into it the excess profits generated by the falling ruble from the oligarchs. The country needs industrial policy, governed by the state, targeted investments of state corporations and the government, innovative development of the nuclear industry, oil and gas, defense industry.