Script Method: Examples and History

What is the method of scripting? It should be noted that with its help it is possible to assess the likely course of development of certain events, as well as provide for the consequences of the decisions taken. For example, you can predict the feasibility of opening a children's entertainment center, calculate the profit, provide for possible losses.

Importance of technology

The scenario method is widely used in the activity of forecast centers. Specialists who create options for the development of a particular situation, identify the final results with a certain level of reliability. They are looking for a relationship with existing factors, form a picture, try to pick up those options that will help to eliminate the cause of the problem. For example, we can assume the effectiveness of creating a cosmetic salon in a small city, and for this you should get acquainted with the prices for services, offers of competitors, etc.

Specific features

If the scenario method is used by specialists, in such a case it is possible to compile a clear and complete development of the situation, to reveal various variants of its management.

Using the scenario method provides an opportunity for timely search and awareness of identified hazards, which can adversely affect the course of events, lead to unsuccessful management actions. For example, some people before starting their business, calculate the competition for business, to avoid bankruptcy.

History of appearance

There is a version that the first method of the script was used by Hermann Kahn. Kahn compared and evaluated various scenarios for the development of a particular situation, tried to find the only correct way to solve the problem. At first, the method of analyzing scenarios was only descriptive, then it was actively used in the compilation of quantitative and qualitative models of the situation. Today, without a preliminary miscalculation, no new enterprise opens.

Efficiency of application

The method of developing scenarios is connected with the creation of technologies for the development of projects that will provide the most effective solution in specific situations. If possible, this technology should minimize the loss in the development of events for the worst case scenario.

Methods of implementation

At present, the risk scenario method exists in several interpretations:

• Obtaining an agreed opinion;
• The use of interaction matrices;
• Repeat independent scripts.

Harmonization of expert opinion

The method of the scenario by obtaining an agreed opinion experts consider one of the varieties of the Delphi technique. It is based on obtaining a common opinion of different groups of experienced experts on an important event in a certain field for a prospective period.

This method has certain drawbacks. First of all, among its drawbacks, we call insufficient attention to the interconnection and interaction of various factors that influence the dynamics of the situation, the changing course of events.

Repeating scripts

The use of the scenario method involves the creation of independent scenarios on individual aspects by different experts. This process is repeated after a certain time period. Then the most acceptable options are agreed upon, all possible negative consequences are worked out when they are implemented in practice.

Among the main advantages of this approach can be noted in-depth analysis of the interaction of different aspects of the formation of the situation. Its main shortcomings are lack of security and incomplete methodological development of the procedure for coordinating various scenarios.

Gordon and Helmer developed their own scenario method. Their technique is now called the matrix of interactions. Its essence lies in the fact that the potential relationship of events is determined taking into account all expert assessments. Thanks to the analysis of the situation, which connects all the possible variants of a combination of events by their strength, the change in time, it is possible to clarify the initial opinion about the probability of the event, to search for optimal combinations for a positive resolution of the problem.

The downside of this approach is the laboriousness in obtaining a huge number of estimates and carrying out the procedure for their processing and correction.

Features of calculations

You can calculate the possible directions of the development of the system, using mathematical formulas. In the absence of managerial influences, it is assumed that the evolution of the system will occur in the most probable direction.

Administrative influences are proportional to the action of forces that are able to change the direction of the development trajectory. Of course, it is important to consider them with an obligatory consideration of certain restrictions that are imposed by both external and internal factors.

Such a technology for developing scenarios allows the determination of the state of the analyzed system at discrete time intervals.

Administrative influences contribute to the shift of the state of the system in space, cause deviations from the planned development of the current situation. As a result of such a deviation, there is a need for an additional search.

In some cases, the control actions are aimed at maintaining stability, protecting against the development of the scenario on the negative path.

Results of applying the methodology

Among the most important results of using this method of scenarios, experts note the maximum awareness of the situation in question, as well as the specific features of its subsequent development.

Among the latest interesting proposals related to this technique, we will select scenario forecasts.

Before proceeding to the direct creation of the scenario, the methodology involves conducting a full-fledged analysis of the situation, identifying the main operating forces, seeking relationships between the main factors, and performing the necessary detail and structuring of the events.

In this method experts are involved in the selection of variables. The key task set before them is to obtain a set of essential variables, which would be sufficient to fully consider the situation analyzed.

The next step is to determine the appropriate scale for each of the selected variables. Only within the constraints imposed will the measured measurements be considered. In connection with the fact that in specific situations, in addition to quantitative variables, the development of a verbal-numerical scale that has numeric indicators is supposed, the task of experts is clearly complicated.

With a meaningful description, you can significantly expand the number of variables, include those that help reflect the nature of the situation.

In the case of using continuous variables, it is advisable to identify certain values that will help to conduct a full-fledged analysis of the situation. In some cases, information about variables can be presented as a thesaurus (list) that reflects basic information in the form of a descriptive quantitative assessment.

Conclusion

The main task of the scripting method is to find the key to understanding a particular problem. In the case of analyzing a particular situation, it is important to use all the best scenarios to resolve contradictions, to find the right option for the development of subsequent events.

In some cases, the history of the formation of the analyzed situation is included in the scenario.

A distinctive feature of the method under consideration is multivariance, the possibility of considering several alternative types of situation development taking into account the baseline scenarios.

When grouping scenarios into classes, they define a rational strategy of action for a specific situation. Most scenarios are informative, which significantly increases the chances of an effective solution to the problem. Thanks to the use of modern computer equipment, the scenario method can be used with maximum efficiency and efficiency.

Recently, the method of scripts (example and types have been discussed above) is gaining popularity.