What threatens the fall of the ruble and what are its positive consequences

In the modern world economy, monetary units are not provided with a gold reserve of states and, like any commodity, have their price expressed in digital form, that is, rates. The demand for each currency is formed according to market laws, depending on the need. If the US dollar, Japanese yen or euro are required for the production of interstate settlements, then the demand for them is growing, as is the price.

Devaluation and inflation

After the collapse of the USSR, virtually all states that emerged on its former territory experienced a systemic crisis, including economic crisis. The dependence of internal economic processes on the external situation was so strong that the concepts of devaluation and inflation could be considered identical. As soon as the dollar was growing, prices were rising proportionally, and everything, regardless of the country of origin of the goods. Salaries, store price tags, the value of real estate and cars were indicated in "y. E. ". So ashamedly called the greenish-gray notes of the US federal reserve system. On whether the ruble will fall again, the survival of millions of families in Russia and other post-Soviet countries depended.

Course Adjustment Mechanism

State regulation of exchange rates occurs according to a simple scheme. The Central Bank makes currency intervention, that is, targeted intervention in the market mechanism. It consists in increasing the supply of a foreign monetary unit, and, consequently, causes a decline in its price. In some cases, state bodies make a conscious decision to maintain their own currency at a deliberately low level. In order to understand the motivation for such behavior of the Central Bank, it is necessary to understand what the fall of the ruble means for the national economy.

The advantages of devaluation

Any sharp changes in the situation on the currency exchange cause many consequences, both unpleasant and quite desirable. The depreciation of the Russian ruble currently does not lead to a general increase in prices, it affects only the imported commodity assortment. In some cases, when domestic manufacturers use components purchased abroad, devaluation leads to an increase in the cost of production, which depends on the percentage of their content. But the import-substituting branches of the economy experience an upsurge associated with a reduction in the competitive burden, which significantly affects their development. Thus, the state bodies, realizing what the collapse of the ruble is in relation to other world currencies, consciously "brakes" foreign exchange interventions to create preferences for national commodity production, without imposing additional restrictive duties or fees. Of course, such a measure is possible only when the country's industry is able to meet domestic needs and enter foreign markets. Decrease in the cost price due to the low exchange rate positively affects the competitiveness of domestic goods, creating them export price advantages.

The devaluation

So, the depreciation of the national monetary unit entails many positive macroeconomic consequences. However, in the world there are no such parameters, the increase of which would always be desirable. All is well in moderation, otherwise all countries would constantly compete in the one whose currency is cheaper, but this for some reason does not happen. Among other macroeconomic indicators, the investment climate is of no small importance. Undermining confidence in the monetary unit is what the ruble is threatening if it happens too often and unpredictably. After all, any foreign resident, who decided to invest his own money in our economy, does this in terms of the profit received in the currency that he invested, and if his hopes are not justified, then he will take his money and leave home. This situation is undesirable, Russia needs technology and jobs, and therefore, the ruble should be supported.

What threatens the fall of the ruble for citizens and the banking system

Macroeconomic indicators are vital for the country, they guarantee the very fact of its existence and the successful functioning of the state. But apart from them there is also a more mundane aspect, expressing what threatens the fall of the ruble for an ordinary citizen, far from a high financial policy. What will be his reaction to the growing devaluation? It's very simple, you do not need to be a professor of economics to understand that you need to go to the nearest exchange office, and buy up dollars or euros for the collected money. If their rate grows faster than the deposit bank deposit, then it will. As a result, there will be a withdrawal from the circulation of funds that could work for the benefit of the country, and foreign banknotes will lie idle in secluded places of the homes of our fellow citizens.

Undoubtedly, in the event of a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate, all those items imported from abroad will rise in price, to which we are accustomed: cars of foreign brands, radio equipment, laptops, tablets, mobile phones and other equipment without which modern life is not conceived.

However, at present there are no reasons for panic. The Russian economy is in an unprecedentedly good position. The country has a huge gold and foreign currency reserve with virtually no external debt, and there is no reason to expect an extraordinary fall in the ruble exchange rate. It is possible only a thoughtful game "for a fall".