Will there be a crisis in Russia? The political and financial crisis in Russia

The question of whether there will be a crisis in Russia that has lately sounded very often has exhausted itself. He is. Systemic, with all the attributes and negative dynamics of indicators of economic development. The next logical question: "What to do in a crisis and how long will it last?" The opinions of experts on this issue are different. Like the assessment of what is happening. Since everything is ambiguous: both the geopolitical situation, the state of the economy, and the proposed ways of getting out of the critical situation.

Therefore, an approach that takes into account authoritative opinions, and not only domestic specialists, will be legitimate. In information diversity, one must be able to develop the ability to quickly filter and accept that information, which is based on facts, logic and common sense. We will try to understand the nature of the crisis and answer the old questions arising in the new historical realities.

Origin of the term

The crisis (the ancient Greek κρίσις - a solution, a turning point) is a state that characterizes the inconsistency of the form and content of a social phenomenon, a process that requires immediate resolution. Depending on the social nature, the crisis can be:

• Economic;
• Social;
• Financial;
• Demographic.

The crisis can be classified by scale, level, and other parameters. In the article, the subject of analysis is the social nature of the phenomenon.

The crisis historically developed in the judicial practice of the period of antiquity and meant the actual conduct of the court session. In terms of content means a critical state of a process that requires new forms and methods for further development. The social and economic crisis in Russia, which at the moment characterizes the state of society, is unlimited by the scale of one country. Moreover, the current crisis, for example, goes far beyond the framework of a certain social institution. According to experts, it is of a complex nature, affects the power structure, the economy, the financial institution, is connected with the geopolitical situation of the country. To assess what is happening, we will try to reveal the economic nature of the social phenomenon.

Economic crisis

One of the main terms, if we talk about the economic characteristics of society, is production. In the sequence of historical forms of production, the history of the economy was studied. In the modern approach, the sphere of production, consumption and distribution of a social product can be analyzed in different paradigms, that is, knowledge systems with given vectors. Therefore, it is advisable to talk about a certain model of economic production and its inherent economic indicators, state markers.

To understand what is the economic crisis in Russia, the reasons that led to it, you need to evaluate the modern model of the economy. But this is quite difficult to do. It is called "withdrawal" from the model of state regulation. It is stated only the existence of a model in the past. Present Russia is most often referred to as "raw materials production" and indicates the direct dependence of the state of the economy on the cost of oil on the world market. If there is no specific model, we confine ourselves to some indicators. Economic markers of modern Russia:

• Decrease in GDP;
• Reduction in the scope of production;
• Departure from the state regulation model;
• Dependence of the state of the economy on the price of raw materials (oil);
• Massive export of capital abroad;
• Significant impact of foreign capital on the banking sector.

In order to identify the model of the economy, vectors of direction should be defined: the existence of the strategy, the base values on which it is based, and the content component, which includes some ideology of the model. At the moment there are none. The Russian economy, designated in the 1990s as a rejection of the previous development model, remained essentially transitional. Why has left, this is clear - from the state socialist system of regulation. Where is she going? It remains a mystery even for the initiated. Karl Marx called this state "the loss of the old world without finding a new one."

Social metamorphosis

The economy can not be separated from other forms of society. The crisis in Russia is manifested in all social institutions of society. This is confirmed by the facts about a number of bankruptcies of enterprises from large business and a significant reduction in the segment of small and medium-sized businesses.

Due to innovations in the field of taxation for 2013, the number of individual entrepreneurs has decreased almost twice. Entrepreneurship itself has not disappeared, but the way of existence has changed. The share of the shadow economy increased, which also affected the state budget.

The withdrawal of licenses from banks and the financial crisis in Russia, which has manifested itself since August 2013, have become real indicators of the beginning of a systemic crisis. In the social sphere, there is an increase in the debt to pay wages and an increase in unemployment.

These factors have not yet acquired a mass character. But social tension manifests itself. That is why the law on bankruptcy of individuals took place. For seven and a half years he was under consideration. And now it is not urgently introduced from 2016, as was supposed earlier, but six months earlier, since summer 2015. As the critical mass of insolvent people has reached its borders and this can lead to another social crisis.

The consequences of the collapse of Ukraine is also one of the causes of social tension. Diversion of funds from the budget, financing of resettlement and support programs for refugees, investment in the economy of the Crimea - all this is a good resource perspective. However, in the present, it requires considerable reserve funds.

Each crisis has its own historical face

Each of the problem periods has the same dynamics and meaning, but different historical characteristics. The crisis in Russia in 1998 led to a technical default. The refusal to fulfill obligations on federal loan bonds and state treasury obligations led to a loss of confidence on the part of both external and internal creditors. The national currency for the first time drastically lost its weight, more than three times, against the dollar. This was the hardest period of economic decline. The consequences were quite tough. The high level of criminalization of society and the wild ways of establishing initial capital characterized this period.

The crisis in Russia 2008 was manifested in the financial and economic sphere. This stage revealed the degree of dependence of the Russian financial system on foreign capital. Bankruptcy of large banks. The real estate market collapsed, followed by the stagnation of the construction market. The decline was associated with a collapse in the system of mortgage lending on a global scale.

Having manifested itself as a bank, the crisis in Russia provoked instability and the recession that followed in all social spheres. The outflow of deposits to financial institutions for one month only led to a reduction in personal accounts by more than fifty billion rubles.

The crisis in Russia and the way out

Since, as it turned out earlier, the critical state is that when you need to make quick decisions and look for new forms that meet the requirements of reality, then it remains to understand what these quick decisions are?

A number of proposals and new approaches to the development strategy are contained in the traditional annual message to the Federal Assembly of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. His speech describes the economic situation in the country, outlines the strategy for further development. And in the conditions when the crisis in Russia has declared itself to the full, the speech can be regarded as options for getting out of it. In particular, the following measures are proposed:

• Expansion of economic space, participation in the Eurasian project;
• Replacement of the import of goods with the export of products;
• Production support;
• Development of the Far Eastern region;
• Output over three years on indicators of production development, exceeding the average economic indicators of the world market;
• Creation of industrial production;
• Amnesty capital offshore zones;
• Financial support of non-primary industries.

The President's speech and the press conference that followed him, in which the points that aroused the public's interest, were more detailed, showed the readiness of the Russian government for a cardinal concentration of resources and a breakthrough in the country's economy. Breakthrough to a new level of organization of society and the search for resources within the country, and not beyond its borders.

Crimea, the crisis, Khodorkovsky

The modern era can be described as a search for a model of the development of society as a whole. The last crisis in Russia Requires special control measures. This is explained by the political alignment of forces at the present stage. An uneasy situation is exacerbated by economic sanctions from the US and Europe, which are uninteresting economically for either side of the economic confrontation.

The main reason is the global crisis. In Russia, there is a stake on the development of the Crimea and the inclusion of this independent state in economic interactions with Russia. The strengthening of the Russian Federation does not meet the interests of a number of states, which is why the application of sanctions easily reads an attempt to weaken Russia's influence in the global economic space. The famous oligarch Khodorkovsky notes the shortsightedness of the authors of the "alienation" of the Russian community. Russia is ready to negotiate and resolve contradictions that provoke a political crisis. In Russia, they are ready for a constructive dialogue. Will the West respond to this?

Euro creeps, ruble falls, Russia will break through

Freedom to move the currency indicators, the bacchanalia of exchange rates, which the whole world observes, shows the real state of things. Specialists in economics, politics, strategy - everyone is trying to assess the situation. And the forms are different, from political PR to the forecast of astrologers. Recognition of the fact that one of the figures "guessed" the course in the last months of the year makes it easier for anyone to become. How this does not confirm the economic competence of the predictors.

It is clear that the actions of the head of the White House traced an attempt not only to weaken Russia economically, but also lead to a state of panic and imbalance in society. The social crisis in Russia, which is expected from the artificial complication of the already difficult situation in the country, may subsequently have the opposite result. The economic collapse of Russia, which the "customers" are waiting for, will not take place at least for the reason that the potential of the state is far from exhausted. The Russian resource lies in the ability to find a solution not outside, but within its own country and make another breakthrough that is correlated with the scale of the Russian space.

Country paradoxes

Russia is an unpredictable country. Its most resourceful condition is manifested in resistance to the crisis. The harder the situation, the stronger the way out of it. And this is confirmed by the words and position of Russian President Vladimir Putin at a press conference following the results of the appeal to the Federal Assembly. He predicts an opportunity to overcome the crisis in Russia in two years, and this is in the worst case scenario.

An attempt to turn the situation provoked by external and internal factors in favor of his country is worthy of respect. President Putin's speech at a press conference on December 18, 2014 showed that Russia does not concentrate on finding solutions to the crisis. This is a narrow understanding of the situation. The country is changing the strategy in such a way as to make a qualitative breakthrough and, at the expense of its own capabilities, reach economic indicators that are higher than the average world.

Russia's Resource Potential

Another crisis in Russia created a situation of economic isolation from the old Europe. Under such conditions, the possibility of getting out of the critical situation had to be sought, without expecting support from outside. In order not to burden yourself with the question of whether the crisis in Russia will be again, it is necessary to create prerequisites for a healthy economy here and now. And for this the country has all the possibilities:

• The agro-industrial complex showed growth of 5 percent in the current year, a record grain crop was collected;
• Russia has increased its resource thanks to the Crimea;
• EU sanctions dictated tough conditions for the development of their own industrial production, and this is the shortest and most reliable way to stabilize the economy;
• The reorientation to the "eastern" version of development under conditions of sanctions gave an intensive development to the Eurasian industrial complex.

Philosophy of crisis

Crisis is the natural state of any living matter. Any development reaches its limit in a certain historical phase of dynamics. This is the state where the goal is realized in the best possible way in the form of reality. The moment of external well-being carries a threat to this state. Why? Because in the case of successful development, the search for better options stops, and immediately comes the development form of life that does not correspond to development - statics, stagnation, recession and many other forms of depressing state.

The first crisis in Russia at the beginning of the century was just a clue about the inconsistency of the amount of money to their quality. The money supply was not a consequence of the development of production. Infusions of foreign capital have shaped Russia's dependence on foreign investors. This is some form of lazy well-being. If its source is outside, then with any change in the situation, this well-being has no chance to survive.

Therefore, the crisis of 2008 was a bell about the inefficient economy of Russia. According to the well-known economics specialist, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Mr. Ulyukayev, Russia is currently in a state of triple crisis: structural, economic and geopolitical.

Completely adequately assessing the state of the Russian reality, Ulyukayev does not relieve the responsibility for what is happening with the ruling authorities. But it does not support the pessimistic expectations of the collapse of the economy.

There is only one brilliant decision on how to defeat the crisis - to look for sources of power development within the country itself. And they, as reality shows, and history, exist in the Russian state in abundance.