Types of cycles. Stages and duration of cycles

What do we know about cycles? How does this concept relate to our life and what role does it play in our environment? Of course, we all know what it is. But what kinds of cycles there are, this is a more interesting question.

What is the cycle

This is a general concept that has widespread use in various spheres of human activity. A cycle is basically a set of actions.

If we characterize it as a generalized term, then this is the completed sequence of the functioning of the material and technical components of the object or phenomenon in space and time. This is a kind of circle of certain events that can be repeated with or without periodicity.

To understand this concept in more detail, it is necessary to consider the main types of cycles. This term is used in various fields of science and technology. For example, it can be found in mathematics, economics, programming, physics, biology, geography, literature and many others.

What are the cycles

Today we can distinguish the following types:

1. Economic:

- the life cycle of the organization;

- product life cycle;

- production;

- operational;

- financial;

- technological;

2. Historical.

3. Cycle in programming.

4. Mathematical.

5. Thermodynamic.

6. Life.

7. Menstrual.

8. Demographic.

9. Musical.

10. The cycle of stories.

11. The cycle of the machine.

12. Educational.

13. Geographical (solar, lunar, sedimentary cycles).

Let's consider each of these species in more detail.

What is the economic cycle

Most of the economic indicators are dynamic. They never stand still and change all the time. Among some of them you can see the cyclicity, that is, they are growing, then falling again. These fluctuations are called the economic cycle.

It is worth noting that the cyclical will be the economy of any country, which is inherent in the market type of economy.

Thus, the economic cycle is a recurring fluctuation of various economic indicators, which on the whole give a specific periodicity and talk about economic activity in a particular period. Sometimes this period is called "business".

The economic cycle can characterize the economy of a single production, city, country or selectively taken regions of the world.

To foresee, in which direction (progress or regression) it will go, it is rather difficult, because it is influenced by many different factors. Oscillations, as a rule, are irregular.

Stages of the business cycle

There is such a thing as the length of the cycle in the economy. This term explains the period of time between two identical phases (stages) of economic activity of a subject of the economy.

Four basic stages form a complete cycle.

So, the first stage of the business cycle will be the rise. It is characterized by the revival of all processes. If it is a question of the national economy, then at this phase the level of inflation is low, the consumer seeks to make purchases that were postponed during the crisis.

The second phase is the peak. During the first phase there is a rapid growth and the peak characterizes the highest degree of business activity. For the national economy, the peak of economic activity will be a small unemployment rate, the most efficient work of enterprises, the business grows and increases its capital through lending. After the peak, the recession immediately follows.

The third phase is a decline. This is the stage at which the economy is experiencing a decline in activity, a recession. The volume of production of goods and services is decreasing, the level of investment is falling. In view of the above factors, the unemployment rate begins to rise, the volume of goods is growing, there is no demand for it, there is a drop in prices, why the incomes of the population are declining, demand continues to decline. The long and protracted period of economic decline is called depression.

The fourth stage is the bottom. The bottom is the lowest point of economic activity. At this stage, the unemployment rate is the highest, the level of production is small. There is a consumption of excess goods that were produced in previous periods. Prices do not fall any more, the volume of production begins to increase gradually. This phase, as a rule, is fleeting, followed by a recovery again. But in history there is an example when the bottom in the economy dragged on for 10 years (the Great Depression in 1929-1939).

Types of economic cycles

In the scientific literature there is an approved classification in accordance with their duration and periodicity. In general, it is worth noting that the types of economic cycles total more than 1380 units.

Consider the most popular classification:

1. Short cycles of Joseph Kitchin. Duration - from 2 to 4 years. The scientist explained this by the fact that the world's gold reserves are constantly changing. This was true in the 20s of the 20th century. Today, scientists explain such a short duration of the economic cycle by the presence of temporary delays (lags) in obtaining production necessary for commercial activity data. As an example, you can bring the saturation of the market with a certain commodity. Production receives this information late, which causes overproduction of goods and creates a surplus in warehouses.
2. Medium-term cycle of Clement Juglar. The duration of the cycle is from 7 to 10 years. The French economist opened these cycles. The increase in the cycle duration is explained not only by temporary lags with production information, but also by delays in investment decisions. As the level of loading of the enterprise and the volume of goods fluctuate, Juglar supplemented the theory also by the fact that the volume of investments in the fixed capital of the enterprise also fluctuates, which, accordingly, increases the period of lags.
3. Simon Kuznets cycle (rhythms). The American economist, the Nobel Prize winner, discovered these cycles in the 1930s. According to his life cycle model, the duration of the period is 15-20 years. The explanation of the duration of the cycle was covered by the impact of demographic processes (a constant influx of immigrants), as well as changes in the construction industry. In view of this, Kuznets's rhythms are also called "demographic", or "building" cycles. To date, Kuznets cycles are seen more as "technological", because they are directly related to constant innovations in the technological field.
4. Prolonged cycles of Nikolai Kondratiev (from 40 to 60 years). They were also opened in the 20s of the 20th century. They are called K-waves, or K-cycles. They are connected with such important inventions as steam engine, railway, electricity, internal combustion engine, computer technologies and much more. Also, significant changes in the structure of production of goods can have an impact on the cycle period.

It is also possible to distinguish such longer types of cycles as:

1. The Forrester Cycle. The length of such a period is 200 years and is explained by the fact that materials change as well as energy sources in production.
2. Toffler's cycle. According to such a life cycle model, the duration of the period is 1-2 thousand years. The scientist explains this cycle by the constant development of civilization and the introduction of new developments of scientists both in theory and in practice.

Organization Life Cycle

What does this term describe? This is a complex of certain phases of the development of the enterprise during its existence.

The main stages of the organization's life cycle are:

1. Becoming. At this phase, the product life cycle is formed (about this a little later), the goals of the organization, the search for partners and the preparation of ideas for implementation, the selection of specially trained personnel, and the release of the first trial lot of the goods. At this stage, the manager forms a strategy for the enterprise - power (large capacity), adaptive (individual needs of the consumer) or niche (the advantage over other enterprises in a certain sphere of production of goods and services). The duration of the production cycle is calculated
2. The second stage is growth. At this stage, the enterprise develops, management is improved, staff increases, various incentive and standardization systems are introduced to improve the efficiency of labor and production. Also here an analysis of the organization's relationship with the external environment, the coordination of its goals and priorities are conducted.
3. Maturity. At this stage of the organization's life cycle, the company's growth stabilizes. During this period, the company reaches the position of a leader in the market, continues to expand its range, perfects the structure of the organization. If the company has reached the stage of maturity, it means it is able to maintain a stable position in the market and is able to set an example for more "young" organizations.
4. The last stage of the life cycle is decline. At this stage there is a drop in demand for products, a decrease in profits. There are stronger competitors in the market, or the need for products simply disappears. The knowledge and experience accumulated over the years of the company's existence can no longer be properly integrated into the company's presentation system. Why is the experience now obtained is not fixed.

Product life cycle

This, in turn, the duration of demand for a product in the market. This is a marketing research that focuses mainly on the consumer market. The basis of this is an understanding of the essence of the life cycle - everything has its lifetime in the market, and sooner or later a new, more perfect or cheaper one comes to replace one product.

As in the case of organizations, there is such a thing as the stages of the product life cycle. There are only four:

1. The stage of implementation. At this stage, the company develops a market for a new product, considers the future demand for a particular product. As a rule, at this time there is a slight increase in sales, there may be losses. The cost of marketing research is minimal, the level of competition is rather limited.
2. Stage of growth. At this phase, you can observe a rapid growth in demand for products. The sales volumes and incomes of the manufacturer grow. If demand begins to fall, the goods accumulate in warehouses, as they fill, the price of this product begins to fall with the goal of its early sale.
3. Stage of maturity and saturation. Most people who want to buy goods have already done so, so the demand growth is not so rapid, interest in the product disappears. As a result, the level of demand reaches a peak and falls, setting at a specific point.
4. Stage of decline. When the market is experiencing a steady decline in demand, revenue from sales of goods and the volume of its sale, then the organization is at the stage of the product's life cycle "decline". In this case, firms are offered four options to exit the situation: improving the marketing program, updating the product design, changing its position in the market, or abolishing the production of a particular product.

Production cycle

This is a set of actions with tangible working assets (the mobile assets of the enterprise are assets into which cash is invested and which can be converted back into cash during the cycle). That is, the production cycle is the time interval between the purchase of materials for production before the release of the finished product.

The duration of the production cycle at each enterprise is different. Everything depends on the complexity of the process of manufacturing products, the supply of materials, equipment and much more.

In order to calculate the cycle, the following data will be needed:

- duration of the technological cycle;

- the total time of breaks (both for organizational and technical reasons, and break according to the schedule of the firm);

Time of natural processes.

At the same time, the duration of the technological period is the time during which a person directly or indirectly affects objects of labor (materials for the manufacture of goods). That is, the direct production of products (technological cycle of manufacture). It is also important to consider only those time inputs that do not go in parallel with the technological cycle. Thus, having summed up all the above-mentioned time periods, we get the duration of the production cycle.

Operation cycle

This is a broader concept, because, in addition to the production cycle, it also includes the time of payment for the finished goods. If the company works on a prepayment, then the end of the operating cycle will be the time of shipment of the goods, and not its payment.

Of course, the duration of the operational cycle will also be longer in time than the production cycle. It is worth noting that the shorter the cycles in the organization, the more risky will be its activities, and the degree of supply of turnaround assets is lower. At the same time, if the cycles are too long, the more costly the company will be in view of the constant need for additional sources of financing.

Calculate the cycle of the operating activities of the company is not difficult. It is enough to know the following parameters:

- duration of the production cycle;

- maturity of accounts receivable (DZ);

The sum of the period of the production cycle and the repayment period of the DZ will be the duration of the operating cycle of the enterprise.

In order to calculate the terms of repayment of accounts receivable, it is necessary to divide the amount of it - without advances given - into revenue (net). The amount should be multiplied by 365 days.

Other types of cycles

Life is a sequence of stages of development, through which every kind of living organism passes in the process of ontogenesis.

The historical cycle is a certain circle of historical sciences studying the events of the past; Some historians believe that everything is cyclical, just as in history one can trace the existence of a certain cyclicity of events.

A cycle in programming is a certain sequence of repetitive actions. This is part of the code of a particular program that does the job. For example, for a written program to count from 1 to 1000, it is necessary to write a loop for it, which it will repeat.

A mathematical is a closed route along the vertices of a graph (a set of vertices and lines that are connected together in whole or in part), which is inherently a chain.

The thermodynamic cycle is a sequence of thermodynamic processes that result in the conversion of heat into work (the Carnot cycle).

Menstrual is a period of time when changes and preparations for a possible pregnancy occur in the reproductive system of a woman. Repeats with a frequency of a month.

The demographic cycle is the process of reproduction of labor resources (from the economic point of view).

Musical - a collection of independent works, united by one idea. For example, the cycle "The Times of the Year", which is described by three composers - Antonio Vivaldi, Petr Ilyich Tchaikovsky and Astor Piazzolla.

The cycle of stories is also a collection of works united by one idea. Also called the "literary" cycle.

The machine cycle is the time interval through which the machine repeats the same operation, including the time of the auxiliary operations.

The lunar cycle is the period for which the Moon passes through all its phases and returns to the original "new moon" phase.