Social Forecasting: Analysis of Methods

Social forecasting is one of the most methodologically complicated forms of investigating the prospects of processes and phenomena. In natural sciences, prediction is used to prepare for the consequences of a phenomenon. For example, if a high probability of an earthquake or a volcanic eruption is identified, information should be provided and people evacuated outside the corresponding territory. The subject area of social forecasting is social processes, the outcome of which can be affected, so the value of this type of prospect study is not only in preparation for future circumstances, but also in the ability to model them.

In practice, the following methods of social forecasting are used:

Method of expert assessments

This method consists in collecting and investigating the opinions of experts on the prospects of the social phenomenon under study. The effectiveness of this path is determined by the competence of experts, the correctness of the questions posed to them and the quality of processing the responses received.

The method of the Delphic oracle is a variation of the method of expert appraisal - it is distinguished by a complicated scheme of experts questioning: to exclude the influence of the group on the opinion of each specialist, the experts do not disclose the names of other qualified respondents, each independently answers questions. Further, the answers are analyzed and the dominant position is determined. After that, respondents receive the same survey, the arguments of experts whose opinions differ greatly from the majority, and the opportunity to change their position. The procedure is repeated until consensus is reached.

The main advantage of the method is the exclusion of group influence on individual opinion, because it can not be realized until a consensus has been reached.

This method can be compared with the last election of the Pope. The decision was taken by an anonymous vote from the third time. It is obvious that during the election, none of the candidates managed to make a "good deed", which could change the opinion of the voters. According to custom, the procedure can not be completed until one of the candidates gets 77 votes. It is logical to assume that long-term social forecasting by the Delphic method is analogous to the definition of "average hospital temperature".

Social modeling. Basic moments

Social forecasting can be done through mathematical modeling. This method allows us to consider the many variants of the development of events in their correlation with various factors. As in the case of the Delphi method, there are some difficulties with long-range forecasting. But the advantage of this method is that the expert makes a conclusion, guided not only by his judgments, but also by the results of "computer" data processing - by the variety of options for the future object under study.

Extrapolation method

The advantage is the identification of the regularities of the phenomenon under investigation on the basis of an analysis of its history and the recording of these data in the forecasting process. Social forecasting through extrapolation is the use of complex formulas that allow achieving valuable results that do not guarantee, however, absolute certainty.

Social forecasting is an effective tool for managing social processes in the hands of those who have the ability to influence them.