Forecasting methods

A method is a complex technique, which is an ordered set of simple methods that are aimed at developing a general forecast. It is also a way, proceeding from knowledge of the most general laws and used when achieving the goal.

Forecasting methods are a special set of techniques by which prognostic operations are performed, and data on the future are received and processed.

The corresponding discipline deals with the study of these methods and their complexes. The methodology of forecasting is classified according to certain categories. So, there are goal-setting, foresight, planning, planning and so on.

The chosen predetermined set of forecasting methods and methods is considered as the method of forecast development.

The system is called the ordered set of technical means, receptions. It is applicable to complex processes and phenomena.

The method of forecasting is a concrete form of a practical or theoretical approach to the formation of a forecast. This is one (or more) mathematical or logical operation, which is aimed at obtaining a certain result.

The philosopher Bazarov (Rudnev) in 1927 proposed three methods: extrapolation, analytical model and expertise. Today there are about two hundred and twenty receptions. In this case, not more than ten of them are used. Among them, in particular, it should be noted factographic (interpolation, extrapolation, trend analysis), publication, scenario, citation-index, matrix forecasting methods. Also apply modeling, building analogies, graphs and other things. Expert methods of forecasting occupy a separate place.

There are also new techniques. For example, they distinguish:

1. Adaptive methods of forecasting. They provide for the construction of recurrent (recurring) self-adjusting models that are capable of reflecting dynamic and time-varying properties that endow the time series, while taking into account the information value of its members.

2. Morphological study. It is used for an unprejudiced and systematic selection of opportunities associated with exploratory forecasting.

3. Retro-anternativistu.

4. The method that provides for the construction of a "tree of goals". This technique is used in the normative evaluation of common components.

5. Contextual mapping.

6. Method of cause and effect. This method is close to the problem-target method.

7. Combined forecast. This method involves the use of some general assessment, which is obtained on the basis of informal or formal aggregation of individual private forecasts, by adding them, as a rule, with specific weight indicators.

This classification is considered very conditional. This is mainly due to the fact that almost all methods of forecasting complement each other, mutually crossing. For example, the assessment always contains elements of modeling and extrapolation. However, the latter is unthinkable without the components of modeling and evaluation. However, modeling involves the presence of elements that contain other forecasting methods.

When analyzing an object, it is often necessary to carry out a study of not one but several of its indicators. In this case, one indicator can be predicted with the help of one method, another with the help of a completely different method. Thus, several methods can be applied to one object.

There are also methods of financial forecasting. They include direct and indirect methods. In the practice of planning, as a rule, both methods are used.