Demographic aging of the population

On the expanses of the Soviet Union, the words "demography" and "statistics" for a long time were perceived as synonyms. Probably, therefore, anecdote about three kinds of lies (lies, vile lie and statistics) could be heard about demographic research. Literally, Demography is translated from the Greek language as "narodoopisanie", but the Latin word status (from which the word "statistics" is formed) is the "state of affairs". It's not difficult to notice that these are absolutely different words both in meaning and in origin. What can the demographic research tell?

Demographic aging of the world's population

Practical demography studies the situation in the selected areas, analyzes trends and shaping trends in the scale of the planet and individual countries. Different social strata of the population, age groups are exposed to the study . Based on the results of the research, forecast indicators appear for 1, 5, 10, sometimes 50 years ahead, describing possible scenario situations in the future.

The forecasts of various statistical organizations speak of the inexorable growth of the number of people over 65 years old throughout the world. It's good or bad - opinions are different. The possibility of such a process was launched by the revolution of the "culture of life and production": the accessibility of education, relative prosperity, the development of medicine, the improvement of the sanitary and epidemiological situation, and working conditions at enterprises. All of the above contributes to the lengthening of human life, which, in turn, is one of the main factors in the aging of the world's population.

Main categories and indicators of demographic research

Practically all the studies go through the stages of data collection, their description and theoretical interpretation of the results. Demographic studies are no exception. The main source of data is the population census, but micro-censuses and selective surveys are carried out to highlight certain social, economic, political factors affecting the situation in the region. As a consequence, research describes the population and its structure: age, sex, national, religious and linguistic, professional and educational. Attention is paid to the natural growth of population and migration, the level of income of certain groups and individuals. All descriptions are conducted with a view to drawing up an accurate theory that takes into account the greatest number of factors of influence, relying on which, in the future, hypotheses of the development and formation of society are put forward.

Demography, as a science, is conditionally divided into formal, analytical, historical, sociological, military.

• Formal demography deals with the study of the quantitative component of all processes and their impact on the growth or decline of the population.
• Analytical - studies the interrelations and influences of laws, causes and effects of society in specific conditions. The study is carried out at the level of mathematical methods, as well as through modeling and forecasting. Analytical demography examines the impact of socio-economic, political, cultural climate in the region on different age groups of the population. It is not surprising that demographers have been talking about the emergence of the problem of population aging due to the prevailing socio-economic situation for several decades.
• Historical demography studies the retrospective of social and other phenomena in connection with the growth or decline of the population in the regions studied. Based on the collected and processed research for a fairly long period (for decades), theoretical generalizations are advanced and established historical patterns are formulated. Thanks to them, it became possible to predict the aging of the world's population.
• The mutual demographic and sociological influence is studied by social demography. From the previous form is distinguished by the study of phenomena at the micro level (family, close relatives, personality). Social demography studies social attitudes, norms, behavior, which affects the methods of research: interviews, tests, surveys, etc.
• Military demography studies various factors affecting the state of military affairs and the economy. This section includes studying the possibilities of mobilizing the country's population during armed conflicts, possible losses among civilians in the form of victims and migration, the consequences of military operations for the region. This section of demography is closely connected with military science.

Population, reproduction and reproduction are the main categories studied by the science in question. The topic of population aging is affected in connection with the study of the sex and age composition of the inhabitants of the region. In theory, it is customary to distinguish three types: primitive, stationary and regressive (in pure form practically do not occur).

• The first type is characterized by high birth and death rates. It can be observed in the tribes of Africa, where children are not registered until they reach the age of ten (due to high infant mortality).
• The second type, as opposed to the first, is observed with low fertility and mortality. This situation can be observed in developed countries and, according to experts' forecasts, in a post-industrial society.
• The third, regressive type is characterized by high mortality and low fertility (observed during military operations in the country).

The term demographic aging is considered as a ratio of the three age groups of the region's inhabitants: persons under 15, working-age population, people after 60-65 years. The predominance of the latter group over the former is 10-15% and is called the demographic aging of the population. Theoretically, a model of the optimal composition of the population was developed where the young unemployable population occupies 20%, workers - 65%, disabled people of retirement age 15%. This scheme is considered ideal in connection with the distribution of the economic burden on the working population (from the calculation for 1000 workers 500 incapacitated). Therefore, other relationships are generally considered to create an excessive load, leading to the collapse of the country's economy.

Features of the demographic situation in Europe

The aging of the population in the developed countries has been going on for the last fifty years. Many factors influence this trend:

• Improvement of medical services;
• Increased life expectancy;
• A decline in the birth rate;
• Economic and socio-political situation in the country.

There was a favorable situation for the emergence of the so-called silver economy. Its essence is to satisfy the needs of older people in services, goods and maintaining the quality of life through the structure and mechanisms of the economic model. One of the components of the Silver Economy is, in particular, inclusion - a term often used in recent years in the post-Soviet space, but ruthlessly pulled out of context and transferred to a completely different part of the population.

In the European countries, different methods and methods are used to relieve the burden from the pension fund:

• It is natural that the age of retirement was raised (in the future it is planned to bring the retirement age to 70 years);
• In most countries, the issue of minimum work experience and the minimum amount of contributions paid to the pension fund is being considered;
• To relieve the burden on pension funds of the state, they try with the help of private accumulative deposits for pensioners, which already allowed to free up to 2% of GDP by some estimates (currently, European countries spend about 15% of GDP to support pension funds);
• A program of "active aging" in various fields was introduced, which is designed to help people stay longer in the labor market and later retire;
• Some countries test partial employment of pensioners: people work on a flexible schedule and receive an incomplete salary and partly a pension (polls show that this form of work is attractive for 68% of the elderly in Europe).

It should be noted that active aging programs are popular with older people and are being implemented in almost all regions of Europe. The main problem of the countries of the European zone is not aging, but a decrease in the birth rate, which is supported by such activities as sex education from the kindergarten age, support and promotion of homosexuality, the famous "free-fidelity" philosophy, etc. However, all of the above is not regarded as problem phenomena With corresponding consequences.

Demographic dynamics in Russia

In Russia, the aging of the population is predicted by 2020, however, to date, the ratio of able-bodied citizens and dependent persons is more than optimistic (15.2% under 15 years, 71.8% at 65, and 13-13% after 65 years). An alarming signal is the annual decrease in the birth rate and a high mortality rate (in quantitative ratio with the newborns). The natural increase in population has been negative for several years already. The aging of the population in Russia, we can say, is at the initial stage, but the speed of this process is anticipated with a small degree of probability.

The demographic situation in South-East Asia

By 2030, a huge leap is expected in the aging populations of countries in southeast Asia. Already today the palm tree in this statistical scale belongs to Japan. Long-term policy of China "one family - one child", also affects not the best way on the age and gender composition of the nation. Recent indulgences in the family policy of the Celestial Empire will not soon bear fruit. To date, there is a strong disproportion in the number of men and women (in the direction of increasing the number of men). This was preceded by a policy without a state pension system (to ensure the old age of the parents had to have a son, which led to a large number of abortions in case the parents knew the sex of the future child (girl)).

The influence of political, economic changes on the demographic situation of regions

The above examples serve as a clear illustration of the influence of the political, economic, territorial situation on the demographic composition of the population of the region. The mechanical containment of population growth, as China's practice shows, can not lead society to prosperity and transition to a post-industrial society, but generates problems that can take a decade or even a radical solution. At the same time, the "social licentiousness" of the developed countries of Europe leads the states to the same denominator, with the difference that "young old people" of the European continent have greater freedom in choosing the trajectory of life.

Impact on the composition of the population climate, natural and man-made disasters, medical services

Against the background of the developed medical industry, scientific discoveries, the aging of the population in the developed countries does not look like a fatal factor in the collapse of the economy. However, such "unplanned events" such as climate change, natural and man-made disasters always make their own adjustments.

If we consider catastrophes of anthropogenic nature, then often they are led by climatic changes and natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, abnormal heat, etc.). However, the "human factor" is the leading one. As an example of anthropogenic catastrophe caused by a natural cataclysm, one can cause an accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, the breakthrough of the Bantiao Dam in 1975 (China). The accident on the platform Deepwater Horizon (the Gulf of Mexico) affected most of the world's population (although, what factor was decisive human or natural, to date, it is not possible to find out).

All catastrophes "harvest" two crops instant and long-term. Instant is expressed in economic damage, victims of cataclysm, but long-term (sometimes exceeding instant) is expressed in social, economic, political (even religious) preferences of society. A colorful confirmation of these words can be the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, the long-term "collection" of which continues to this day.

Migration Policy in Europe

Many studies suggest that the aging of the population is a marker of the well-being of the state, and the reduction in fertility is dictated by an increase in life expectancy and the principle of expediency. However, despite these statements, Europe regularly updates the population at the expense of migrants. Migration policy requires delicate and controlled conduct, which can not be said about the latest wave of "invasion of strangers" on the EU lands. Europeans use a rotational model, which implies the return of migrants to their homeland after they reach retirement age. Recent events illustrate the impossibility of assimilation of the incoming population, and voluntary return seems unlikely.

Migration policy of the countries of the former USSR

In the post-Soviet space, everything looks a little different. The so-called labor migration is developing at full speed (working on a rotational basis with the absence of an employee on the territory of the home for 10-11 months). In fact, home workers come as a resort. The working shift takes place mainly in cities with population over a million people, in construction sites, in factories, in extractive industry with the possibility of further relocation closer to the place of work. The difference between this migration policy and the European one is that it serves as the attraction of highly qualified specialists (as in the USA) and the corresponding labor force. Countries of the post-Soviet space, because of economic and political conditions, do not see the need to invite low-skilled workers and just dependents, especially since unemployment benefits in some regions barely reach $ 20 per month.

Migration Policy of China

The PRC faced the need to expand the territory, which resulted in the lease of lands of neighboring countries. The government encourages the migration of the population to other countries and the conclusion of marriages with representatives of other states, since the number of women in the republic is much less than the male population. It is clear that such a migration does not imply a return to the Celestial Empire at the age of 65 years. The Chinese, settling in distant countries, live separately, according to their laws, which allows one to conclude that they do not want to accept the culture and traditions of the countries in which they live, and also about methodical expansion, the consequences of which may be worse than the European migration crisis.

Variants of development of modern demographic situation

In fact, the aging of the country's population against the background of stable birth rate (from the calculation of 2 children per woman) indicates an increase in the standard of living, its comfort, one can say, sufficient predictability. Dangerous can be considered a trend, when the birth rate increases yearly, but the population at the same time decreases with the same speed. There are a lot of variants for the formation of the demographic situation, they differ only in the number of factors considered when they are compiled. However, one thing is certain - the people of the earth will have to reconsider their attitude to the age of the person in the interval of 64-100 years and learn how to accept "gifts of maturity" and experience.