What will be the ruble exchange rate in the foreseeable future?

The rates of foreign currencies excite the Russians. Whatever successes are achieved in the field of import substitution, and imported goods occupy a certain sector of the consumer basket. I would like to buy a foreign brand car, something from home appliances, electronics, and at least the necessary thing, like a home computer, and one has to reckon with the fact that either the whole products or a significant part of the components are imported from abroad. So, the price will be tied to the euro or dollar. Loved by many vacation on exotic or already familiar sea shores, too, at high rates cost in the domestic kopeck. So what can affect in the near future on the figures, pleasantly flickering next to the badges "$" and "€" on the bank boards?

The Myth of the Cheap Dollar

This is from the point of view of the philistine who does not understand in macroeconomic processes, the cheap dollar is equal to the financial success of the state. Someone even remembers the Soviet past when in the pages of the central newspapers Pravda and Izvestia printed courses - for the US dollar, 60 kopecks with a small one. Now you can really come to a conclusion about the then approximate fairness of the evaluation of purchasing power when comparing the entire consumer basket.

Taking into account a penny rent, almost free trade-union rest, a gift (but usually after a very long, sometimes lasting for decades, queue, and sometimes not always) distributed apartments and other benefits received by the citizens of the USSR, so it will come about. Another question is that simply go and change in the State Bank 69 rubles, for example, $ 100 was impossible. It needed a good reason - foreign travel or a tour. And the amount was limited, it was enough for cards and small souvenirs. These orders were dictated by state interests. Another possession of the currency was considered a crime, for the "green" ten could easily be caught in jail.

Now, of course, there are no such strictures. But interests remained.

federal budget

Admiring the progress of China, achieved over the past couple of decades, the same philistine, a supporter of the dollar for 65 cents, does not take into account the reasons for the economic miracle that occurred in the country, which seemed recently hopelessly backward. And the main base of the rapid breakthrough was the poverty of the population, or rather, its willingness to work for extremely low wages. Yuan, just like in the USSR, could not be exchanged for dollars, and it was possible to buy the most necessary minimum for a salary. Russians, of course, no one calls so tighten their belts, but it is also obvious that a high exchange rate ensures an increase in the competitiveness of national exports. The raw material component of the budget is still significant, and it affects the motivation of the actions of the Central Bank and the government. By and large, the state is not interested in increasing the budget deficit (its internal debt), which is inevitable when revaluation. Therefore, it is simply not necessary to expect the work of some macroeconomic regulators for a purposeful strengthening of the ruble.

Oil quotes

Despite the above arguments in favor of preserving and even weakening the national currency, the ruble "grew up" over a certain month. The rate of the US dollar fell from 64 to 62 RUR / USD, and the euro - from 72 to 68 RUR / EUR. And it's not about some kind of governmental or central bank philanthropy, but in the exchange processes connected with oil prices. Today even grandmothers selling sunflower seeds know that if the raw material quotes grow, the dollar falls. Representatives of the OPEC countries in Algeria announced their intention to limit production, Russia also spoke on this issue, and the reaction did not wait. And ahead of it is the November summit of the cartel. Barrel went up by $ 6 (to $ 52), and there is reason to assume a further rise in price. In general, the news is pleasant, but, as is usually the case, too good - this is also bad. So far, the supply surplus takes place (up to 1.5 million barrels per day), while the rise in price of hydrocarbon raw materials is due to expectations. If the barrel rises violently, then the Americans will again come into business with their own slate and will bring down the price. So overdo it with its "inflation" is also impossible, and $ 100 per barrel in the near future does not shine. However, for a stable growth of the Russian economy and the ruble, $ 55 for the "barrel" will suffice. Within these limits, the outlook is optimistic.

China

This factor is directly related to the previous - raw materials and oil. Demand for energy directly depends on the needs for them. If, for some reason, the Chinese economy slows down, the consequence will be a fall in prices for all hydrocarbons. The PRC industry "eats" a lot of oil and gas, and in the event of a weakening of this appetite all world markets glisten. The figurative expression of "a barrel under pressure (or pressure)" is a physical analogy of the financial meaning of the possible development of processes on exchanges. If the price of it falls, followed by the quote of the Russian ruble. However, expect a return to 2014, when the "barrel" fell to $ 32, according to analysts, there are no grounds.

The US Federal Reserve System

The dollar may also be affected by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, or rather, its tightening. If the US money is cheap (loans are meant), then investments will flow into the country, including those that the Russian government was counting on. The ruble, like any other currency, is affected by the movement of capital. This scheme works very simply: the influx causes growth, and the outflow - the fall. What will be done in the Federal Reserve System, what policy to pursue, is now unknown.

External debt service

Russia needs very little compared to other countries, but it still needs to be paid. For the fourth quarter of this year, it is planned to spend $ 32 billion on this. This is not a catastrophe, although most recently George Soros predicted a crisis for the whole economy of the Russian Federation and even almost complete collapse (he much that prophesied that which has not come true and never happens, but oh well). Nevertheless, such a significant currency payment reduces the ability of the Central Bank to implement stabilizing interventions. Some depreciation of the ruble is possible by the end of the year.

Syria

It is difficult to foresee how hard forms will get the Russian-American confrontation in the Middle East. Even though practically all possible sanctions have already been introduced, foreign investors are looking with caution at the development of events, which affects their solution in a number of cases. With this negative trend, however, the CBR is vigorously fighting. In particular, the discount rate (which is the refinancing rate) in Russia is now quite attractive - 10%, which is higher than inflation. Ruble assets are considered quite profitable.

Sanctions

They undoubtedly damage the national economy of Russia, although it should be assessed as minimal. The country has to spend a lot of money to replace imports, which is now difficult, of course, but in the future (when sanctions are already forgotten) promises good results. In the end, the funds are spent on the development of their own economy, albeit forcedly, and not quite in time, at a time of low raw material prices. This is also an investment, and long-term. At the present time, sanctions help to contain the ruble, but not very much.

Forecast

Experts in their majority agree that in the coming months the ruble's three rates will be in the corridor from 60 to 65 RUR / USD. The biggest pessimists expect a drop to 70, but the probability of such an event is not high. However, it is worth noting that the most gloomy forecasts, given in the spring that the ruble depreciates as much as 80 to the dollar, and the euro - to 90, did not materialize, which can not but rejoice.