The organization of production at the enterprises of the construction industry on the basis of the forecast of investment activity

The organization of the main production at a construction industry enterprise largely depends on the quality of forecasting its investment activity. A number of factors and the lack of stability of the conditions that formed the dynamics of its components complicate the process of establishing an adequate mathematical function describing the trend in the development of indicators of the investment activity of a construction enterprise.

The organization of production at the enterprises of the industry on the basis of medium and long-term forecasting of the indicators of the investment activity of enterprises is possible on the basis of the methods of Kholyp-Winters and Brown.

The organization of the main production and the forecasting of the critical level of the investment activity of the enterprise reveal the functional dependence of the market value of the business entity

From the level of its investment activity. The presence of this dependence indicates that the most significant factor causing the growth or decline in the value of the enterprise is an increase or a decrease in the activity of its investment activity, and, accordingly, an indicator such as the organization of production at the enterprises of the industry. In turn, the decrease in the value of the enterprise implies the loss of a competitive advantage in the market, a decrease in the efficiency of its activities and its reduction, i.e. The company's achievement of a financial and crisis state, and in some cases, the loss of the feasibility of conducting production and economic activities. Here, the organization of production at the enterprises of the industry assumes the special significance of forecasting, which allows to predict the quantitative changes in the indexes of investment activity - its activity index - and its structural indicators, and allows in the planning process of prospective activities to determine measures to avoid or prevent undesired activity dynamics of a business entity's investment activity, and, together with Themes and changes in its market value.

The necessary stage of forecasting investment activity is the determination of the critical level (threshold value) of its investment activity (structural indicators), when it is reached, qualitative changes in the market value of the business entity occur when the enterprise moves as a system to a different development path. Such a transition is accompanied by disturbances in the system or its destruction, i.e. Loss of sustainability. The instability of dynamical systems is the subject of a study of catastrophe theory.

In view of the direct dependence of the investment activity of the enterprise on the value of its assets, the issue of managing investment activity with a view to raising it is becoming topical.

The conducted correlation-regression analysis showed that the index of investment activity, which is the most important characteristic of the enterprise's investment activity, is most closely related to the qualitative parameters of investment activity, such as investment management, personnel quality, the level of creativity of investment projects and technologies for their implementation. Moreover, the organization of production at the enterprises of the industry under such conditions increases the importance of the quality of the forecast, through which it is possible to carry out effective management not only at the level of current technological development, but also at the level of strategic planning, having in view of the opportunity to enter the foreign markets for construction services.