Rmb: Winnie the Pooh Hungry In an adult way. He Wants Oil

Analysts at RMB believe that the continuous flow of negative news and commentary, mainly related to European problems, continues to keep the world investor in suspense and to make it continue to run into quality. Wednesday May 30 in this regard was an exhibition day. First, the main focus is still on Spain. Yesterday, the ECB made it clear that it was against assisting the Spanish bank Bankia from the Spanish central bank, and the government announced that it would issue treasury bonds for these purposes. The amount that is planned to attract is very significant - € 19 billion. And this is against the background of the fact that the rating agency Egan Jones downgraded the country's rating to a junky level, and yesterday's auction on the placement of government bonds of Italy showed simply terrible results: the country could not attract all planned Volume of € 6.25 billion (attracted only € 5.74 billion), yield on 10-year securities amounted to 6.03% compared with 5.66% at an auction on May 14 at a supply-demand ratio of 1.4 against 2,3 at the auction on May 14. Against this background, the Spanish "ten-year" returns began to grow, reaching 6.7%, thus approaching the "point of no return" of 7%, which only increased concern about Spain's ability to cope with its obligations. Macroeconomics also did not please: the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone is at a consistently low level of -19.3 points, and unfinished sales in the US housing market declined in April by 5.5% m / m, while zero growth was expected. As a result, the EUR / USD crossed another threshold, now the level is 1.2400, dropping to 1.2370 and losing by the day's results about 0.7%. The pound sterling dipped even more - by 0.9%, reaching the level of 1.5470. Couples AUD / USD and NZD / USD fell with the same force. What can not be said about the Japanese yen, which strengthened to the dollar by almost 1.0% - USD / JPY fell to the level of 78.70, again generating rumors about a possible intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

According to analysts RMB, the oil market against the background of such a negative external background could not resist above the support of $ 90 / barrel by WTI, then went to free fall after the European currency, losing over the day more than 3%. The decline from the peak of $ 109.77 on February 24 was 20%, which means the beginning of the "bear market". The probability of further decline in quotations has now only increased.

According to RMB, such a strong decline in quotations during the day was mainly due to the situation in Europe, where fears continue to grow that Spain will not be able to cope with the crisis and its debt obligations on its own. WTI crude oil quotes, previously showing relatively stable dynamics, having found support in the $ 90 / barrel region, experienced strong pressure when this support was broken. Yesterday's decline, while it was said earlier in the review, formally opened the "bear market", as the decline from the February 24 high ($ 109.77 / bbl) was 20%.

RMB notes that the last day of May, Thursday 31st, was an unusually busy day. It is worth paying attention to the economic calendar, where the most important makrostatistika for Germany (the unemployment rate), the USA (the report on the labor market from ADP, the 2nd version of the report on GDP for the 1st quarter, crude oil reserves) and other macro indicators are planned to be released. The referendum in Ireland is worth mentioning, at which citizens of the country will vote "for" or "against" the "Stability Pact" of the European Union, which implies a reduction in government spending and other unpopular measures for the sake of improving the economy and the possibility of receiving financial assistance from the EU. The first results of the voting will be known only tomorrow morning, however, today the news will receive data from exit polls.