A futurist is a predictor of the future. The most famous futurists

There is such a rare profession - futurologist. This is a specialist who is able to predict the future. People believe that this is possible only with the help of clairvoyance or fortune-telling cards. Futurologist - this is not a palmist and not another expert adventurer. The profession is quite serious, and the predictions of such an analyst are credible. Let's understand who is called a futurologist, what these people are doing, why their words are worthy of attention.

Futurology is a science

Before modern scientists there are several tasks. They need to fully study the phenomenon and describe its development in time. Futurology is a science that predicts social development on the basis of cause-effect relationships and established laws. Agree, this is the prediction of the future. The subject of futurology studies are very distant horizons. The specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of the peoples and tries to understand where the social process is moving. In fact, a futurist is an analyst who needs to link the achievements of several related branches of science. He must have a broad outlook, a serious knowledge base. The process of development of society is influenced, it would seem, such trifles as habits, laid down in childhood, common ways of interaction of personalities, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurist is a specialist, so to speak, of a broad profile, possessing encyclopaedic knowledge.

Subject of study

The question of where humanity goes is occupied by philosophers at all times. Modern specialists have not opened anything new here. But they have improved the methodology for studying the future. Do not be surprised. Having understood who such a futurist is, you yourself will make sure that this analyst is not engaged in absolutely predictions. It is better to say at once that an analysis is under way of underlying changes, their results and the likelihood of influencing processes. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a scrupulous study of social trends affecting the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and collectives. This is what futurology is doing. It relies on the development of mathematicians and sociologists, takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other industries. All this is only to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.

About the "butterfly effect"

To understand who such a futurist is impossible, if you do not explain some of the nuances. The fact is that the direct, previously used analyst is now considered obsolete. The dialectic of Hegel, as they say, ceased to work in the last century. The processes in society, of course, are influenced by simple and known laws, but not fully. And by the way, they are only interested in futurologists. They pay more attention to "sleeping", or unmanifested factors. These are certain processes or phenomena that are only ripening, yet without affecting events. They are called "dormant gnomes". These factors can spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces become more active at any time and affect the whole of humanity. There is a description of how the wings of butterfly wings in America, for example, lead to a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. This, of course, is just a model. But it perfectly describes how the prediction of futurists is formed. It is necessary to take into account a lot of nuances unknown to the general public, to trace their interrelations and understand what the interaction processes will lead to.

Profession futurist

Before we consider the fruits of the activity of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe people engaged in forecasting-shaping the future. Who does this in real life? Practitioners-futurists are quite numerous in the West. We will describe some of them below. But not every scientist, who has a sufficient base, will take up such a difficult task. A specialist must possess creative thinking, a wonderful imagination, the ability to form unusual ideas on the verge of what is possible. In addition, they have to be separated from frank fiction. Often, their ingenious projects futurologists, by the way, draw from literature. They are using the fruits of the human genius, both past and present. The last, in order to advance in this profession, it is necessary to be able to rise above the ordinary, to go beyond the generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering science.

How the forecast is formed

Let's give a diagram of the work of a futurist. Just say that it will be primitive, but will give an understanding of the activities of this kind of specialist. Today much is said about the Third World War. Naturally, the topic did not pass by the attention of specialists. How to understand what exactly can happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:

• Probable participants;
• The current potential;
• Trends in new developments;
• Traditions of peoples and political systems;
• The expected resources;
• Personalities of the leaders of opponents.

The listed is the usual base used by the military. Futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this may be, for example, the sudden death of a leader of a country, for the influence on which the likely opponents are fighting. Or an uprising in any backward state where an important resource is located (a plant, an extracting enterprise). Factors that are less obvious are also taken into account. Having collected all possible, the expert begins their analysis, losing the situation. Conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited probability theory.

Ian Pearson

The most famous futurists regularly shock the public with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use the policy to attract the electorate. So, the Englishman Ian Pierson at the beginning of the century predicted that people can experience the pleasures of love in the virtual space. Then the idea seemed incredible, now it does not shock anyone. He is also known for the prediction that a person will be able to transfer consciousness to a computer after a certain time. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, as the media assure.

Predictions on the solution of the food problem

A lot of scientists work on this serious question. The population of the planets is growing exponentially, and resources are decreasing in multiples. Futurologists have proposed to pay attention to the world ocean, which has not yet been thoroughly investigated. The water, inhabited by rich flora and fauna, occupies the most part of the planet, but the person does not use it properly. Ian Pierson predicts that science will develop methods and appropriate technologies that will allow to extract food from the ocean. This refers not only to catching fish, but also processing of many species of algae, probably, their industrial cultivation.

About the Third World War

The imagination of people excites the predictions of futurologists. It is interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn in a nuclear fire. Perhaps, the most popular ideas of futurists, relate to the probability of the Third World. They can not say with certainty whether it will happen or not. It depends on the politicians and the military. But what it can be, futurists say a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, the participation of a person in the upcoming battles will be minimal. The fighters will lead the technical devices that fight among themselves. The military will be safe, which can not be said about civilians. The flame of nuclear fires will fall precisely on the heads of the ordinary population, and completely turn their world over. To the reader's calming, even futurists consider the likelihood of a big war minimal.

Only a few names

It is not possible to tell about all the ideas and researches of futurologists in a short article. Part of their work is already in full swing by politicians in the ongoing information war. We will only name a few names so that the reader has an idea of the personalities who created our present from a distant and not very past. The most famous in the expert community is the following futurists: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. Surely you also heard these names. The activities of these people are fascinating not so much for the content of forecasts, as for the genius of approaches to analyzing events. They, of course, need to be read far from retelling. And you yourself tried to make a probabilistic forecast for the distant or near future? Share in the comments, together we will discuss.