The concept of tax and collection and its truth for the transformational economy

The modern development of economic and mathematical methods of analysis makes it possible to reliably estimate the predictive and interpolated models of dynamic processes and clarify the concept of tax and levy for the transformational economy. It is not accidental that modern econometrics is used as a tool that confirms or refutes some theoretical propositions.

In the world economic thought, many concepts are advanced, connected with the dynamics of taxes and tax effects, clarifying and supplementing what the concept of tax is and its truth in various models of the economy. In the vein of neoclassical economic theory in the 70's. XX century. The theory of supply has developed. Its supporters - mostly American scientists - take for themselves the Laffer effect, considering the tax cut to be necessary. Representatives of supply theory see high rates of taxes and strict terms of payment of taxes and fees among the main causes of unpredictable inflation.

Is the Russian economy connected with a rise in prices with a tax rate? To answer this question, you can submit all direct, and then indirect, tax collections as some average tax rates multiplied by GDP, using economic and mathematical methods of analysis.

When establishing the correlation between these rates and the consumer price index (CPI), it turned out that direct taxes directly influence inflation, there is practically no lag between their rate and the dynamics of inflation rate (the largest correlation coefficient falls on a monthly period). At the same time, the average share of indirect taxes from GDP, the economic pressure of which is usually shifted by the producer to the shoulders of consumers, is associated with a less close correlation with the level of inflation.

This situation indicates that the dynamics of the rate of direct taxes is more significant and affects prices more quickly than the change in indirect taxes, and therefore the concept of tax and collection itself changes somewhat. Nevertheless, the tightness of the connection between them is not high enough. Thus, the growth of taxes, both direct and indirect, only partially initiates inflation, a significant role here continues to play a rise in the cost of imported components and other goods needed for the national production segment.

Let's return to the important position of the theory of the proposal on the relationship between savings, investment and a slowdown in economic growth. The lack of savings here seems to be the main reason for the curtailment of investments. To check this position of the theory of supply is possible on an analysis of the tightness of the relationship between the average rate of direct tax charges and the level of profitability of products sold. As a rule, this dependence is extremely low. The situation is similar with the close connection between the share of indirect taxes and GDP and the level of profitability for a particular period. Here the negative value of the coefficients, observed in inversely proportional relationships, is characteristic. The larger the amount of indirect charges, the lower the level of profitability.

This situation is created when the classical concept of tax and levy is somewhat transformed and the burden of taxes is automatically shifted to the consumer by proportional inflation of prices as production costs become more expensive. This may be indicated by an additional correlation analysis of the tightness of the relationship between the level of costs per ruble of output and the level of tax charges per ruble of GDP.

In a word, the impact of taxes on the effectiveness of national production deserves special attention. It is normal to recognize such a tax system, such a tax and collection concept, in which there are no obstacles to efficient allocation of resources.

Nevertheless, the results of the analysis of the current state of tax practice confirm the following points:

A) the leading role of indirect taxes in the generation of rates of inflation of costs, hence, the suppression of production;

B) a negligible effect of the rate of direct taxes on the efficiency of production;

The low dependence between the most important macro indicators, tax rates and capital returns, on which all known tax models of Western scientists are built, allows one to draw conclusions about the specifics of transitional processes in the country and the inefficiency of any attempts to directly copy them in the domestic economy.