Kazakhstan: devaluation of the tenge and the economy. Devaluation in Kazakhstan: facts, history, forecasts and consequences

Tenge is the national currency of Kazakhstan. It was introduced in November 1993, shortly after the state gained independence. Kazakhstan, which is a fairly frequent devaluation, is still considered one of the most successful post-Soviet states. A monetary and financial system is taken as a model in other powers.

Name and Symbolism

The national currency of Kazakhstan is tenge. It was named after small Turkic coins. Dengue was silver. Their name was derived from the name of Russian coins. Polkopeyka called money. In November 2006, Kazakhstan, the devaluation in which it once again ended, held a tender for the tenge symbol. Of the 30,000 works, one drawing was chosen. Its authors were Sanzer Amerkhanov and Vadim Davidenko. For their work they received one million tenge. According to the old exchange rate it is about eight thousand US dollars. This amount was paid by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. An additional five thousand dollars was presented to the winners by the commercial financial union "Alliance". However, after the publication of the work, a scandal broke out. It turned out that the drawing is no different from the symbol of the postal service of Japan. And he is more than 120 years old!

Brief information

In order to answer questions about how Kazakhstan is developing, whether the tenge will devalue, one must first learn how this state was formed. Tenge was introduced later most of the new national currencies in the post-Soviet space. In 1991, a group of designers was created to create a banknote. And only in November 1993 came the presidential decree on the introduction of its own national currency. Initially, the tenge to the Soviet ruble rate was 1 to 500. In 1995, Kazakhstan opened its own factory for issuing cash banknotes. Prior to this, coins were minted in Germany, and banknotes - in the UK. Then Kazakhstan itself took up this task.

History of problems

The devaluation occurred in April 1999. The National Bank reduced the exchange rate of the national currency by 64%. The second crisis happened in 10 years. In Kazakhstan, there was a devaluation, the second in a row. The dollar exchange rate increased by 25 tenge. In 2014, the third tenge devaluation occurred in Kazakhstan. The exchange rate of the national currency decreased by one fifth, or by 20%. But this measure was not enough. In the summer of 2015, the last devaluation occurred in Kazakhstan. She devalued the tenge by more than 35%. Since November of the same year, a 20,000-dollar denomination appeared in circulation.

National economy: basic information

The economy of Kazakhstan is the largest in Central Asia. In the post-Soviet space, it is second only to Russia. After 2010, Kazakhstan, a devaluation in which it was held a year earlier, is an active participant in the customs union of the EAEC. The GDP per capita at purchasing power parity was 24 thousand US dollars. In 2014, the growth of this indicator was 4.3%. The lion's share of GDP is provided by the services sector (57%) and industry (38%). The main branches are extraction of oil and gas, uranium, coal, non-ferrous and ferrous metals; Machine building; building; Food sector. Export in 2013 amounted to 83 billion US dollars. Its main article is oil and its derivatives. That is why, for 2015, such a small increase in GDP is projected. If we talk about the devaluation in Kazakhstan, the fall in oil prices could be the main reason for its next turn. Public debt is 12% of gross domestic product.

Prices in Kazakhstan after the devaluation

The emergence of problems in the economy always leads to a reduction in the volume of construction. Employment of people falls, which reduces their purchasing power. This leads to the fact that property prices in Kazakhstan after the devaluation are rapidly falling. After the establishment of a floating tenge exchange rate in the summer of 2015, the cost of housing decreased by 10%. All experts insist on one thing: the state should continue programs of assistance to the population. Demand should stimulate the proposal. And in times of crisis, only state intervention can create such a situation.

Event details

To date, the country has seen four stages of the crisis. The first devaluation of tenge in Kazakhstan took place in April 1999. She devalued the currency by more than 60%. The second devaluation occurred in 2009. The management of the National Bank did not use various methods of maintaining the currency. Reserve decided to save, and the course to adjust. The third devaluation was observed in February 2014. It occurred against the backdrop of a sharp jump in the dollar and euro exchange rate in comparison with the national currencies of the countries of the post-Soviet space. In Kazakhstan, a corridor of fluctuations in tenge was established (185 +/- 3 for $ 1). The people were disappointed by this decision. At the beginning of the year, the government and the National Bank did their best to convince the people that there would be no devaluation. After another round of depreciation of currency, many exchangers and online shops have suspended their work. Also, protests began in front of the National Bank building, and on the petition website they collected signatures in favor of Nazarbayev's resignation from the presidential post. However, after the detention of several dozen protesters, all the excitements quickly ended.

Will there be a devaluation in Kazakhstan

For some time after the rallies of the winter of 2014, everything calmed down. However, in August 2015, a new stage of devaluation occurred. The National Bank of Kazakhstan released the tenge in free float. The main reason for the need for this step is the fall in the ruble exchange rate. The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan immediately stated that this step is aimed at maintaining industry. The new market rate of tenge, he said, will create prerequisites for restoring economic growth by reducing inflation and creating additional jobs. But will the devaluation continue in Kazakhstan? The forecast, unfortunately, seems disappointing. GDP growth in 2016 is expected at 1.3%, which is 5 times less than the average level for 5 years.

External debt

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia assumed the responsibility of paying out an external debt. Other countries had the opportunity to start from scratch. However, as of March 2011, Kazakhstan's debt amounted to 124 billion US dollars. About 6% of the amount is a state loan. At the end of 2008, the debt in question was about 112 billion. Now it has grown - 150 billion US dollars. This means that each citizen (including newborn babies) accounts for $ 8,761 of a foreign loan.

Financial system

In 1998, the financial reform successfully passed in Kazakhstan. To ensure sustainable development, the National Fund was established. Its goal is to reduce the dependence of the state on external factors. There are 38 banks in the country. State assets are concentrated in the holding company Samruk-Kazyna. He supports commercial structures, buying out their assets, if necessary, and creating subsidiaries. In the summer of 2015, the authorities decided to abandon the currency corridor of the tenge and move to the policy of inflation targeting. President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated that he will try to compensate losses to individuals who own deposits, with the help of a targeted accumulation in Zhilstroysberbank. The last drop for the economy of Kazakhstan was the weakening of the yuan. Government structures have long considered the need to stabilize the exchange rate of the tenge using gold and foreign exchange reserves. However, in August 2015 it was decided to move to a floating rate. Impact on him and the further decline of oil. The deflationary expectations in the country are still very high, but there was no excitement yet. Analysts say that individuals have stocked up in currency, and some companies have suspended their activities. Nursultan Nazarbayev stated that inflation targeting is a forced measure, but she had no alternative.

The consequences of the financial crisis of 2007-2010

Of all the countries of Central Asia, the state we are considering is the most integrated into international economic relations. Therefore, the world financial crisis has found the greatest reflection here. In addition, Kazakhstan exports raw materials. It is very dependent on the price of oil and its derivatives on the world market. The underdevelopment of the stock market in the country led to a sharp jump in property prices. And then the financial bubble burst, despite the customized forecasts of the leading Kazakhstani specialists.

Trade sector

Traditional partners of Kazakhstan are the countries of the CIS and the Baltic states. They account for more than 60% of exports and imports. In 2013, foreign trade amounted to 132 billion US dollars. The main partner is the Russian Federation. With it, Kazakhstan has historically formed close cooperation ties. From far abroad, the main partners of the state are such countries as Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Turkey, USA, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Republic of Korea. Kazakhstan is trying to diversify its ties. The state is India's main partner in Central Asia. The trade turnover with the Russian Federation is also growing steadily. For 20 years of independence, it has more than doubled. Since July 2011, the Customs Union of Kazakhstan with Russia and Belarus started operating. According to the experts' forecasts, this integration association can give an additional 15% to GDP.

Export Relationship

The total cost of goods exported from the country is 82.5 billion US dollars. The main export industries are mining, fuel, metallurgy and chemical. The structure is dominated by raw materials. That is why the economy of Kazakhstan is so unstable. Oil and its derivatives account for 35% of exports, nonferrous and ferrous metals - 33%, ores - 12%, grain - 9%.

Import

Kazakhstan imports into its territory raw materials, equipment, vehicles, mineral fuel and food products. After 2002, imports are constantly growing, especially finished products.

Transport

Kazakhstan has an advantageous geographical location. Therefore, he has a good transport potential in the field of transit cargo development. In 2007, Kazakhstan began joint construction of the Eurasia channel with Russia, which was to connect the Caspian Sea with the Azov basin. If the project is implemented, Kazakhstan wins significantly. He gets access to international seaports.

conclusions

Tenge is the most depreciated national currency in Europe. According to economists, he devalued almost 2 times (85.2%). This is due mainly to external factors, which the state could not influence. However, even now such a state of affairs affects the reduction in the volume of industry in Kazakhstan. Pressure on the economy provokes a decrease in the exchange rate of the yuan and the ruble, as well as a sharp decline in the cost of oil. At the moment, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has released the tenge in free float. Whether such a situation will save the situation, time will tell.

However, according to the expectations of the Kazakh authorities, the economic situation is likely to develop in a negative scenario. The Prime Minister even called on businessmen and ordinary citizens to start adapting to the new state of affairs. In the next five years, the main export item of Kazakhstan (oil, as in the Russian Federation) will hold at an average level of about 30-50 US dollars per barrel. The state needs to move away from the commodity orientation of trade. The development of the IT sector looks logical. Also, there are good opportunities for the development of engineering. If the state wants to develop dynamically, then it needs to get off the "oil needle". Otherwise, Kazakhstan, a devaluation in which has already been observed four times, will be forced to depreciate its currency in the future.